An analog season is the period from the climate division's history whose precipitation patterns most resemble the period of interest. Only the periods whose dates correspond with the period of interest's dates are considered. In other words, if the period of interest is the 30-day period ending March 21st, all 30-day periods ending March 21st are compared with the period of interest and a "winner" is determined.
The analog season is determined by a combination of three tests:
Arndt Score: The Arndt Score is a numerical indicator of the strength of the "match" between the period of interest and the analog season:
Arndt Score | Interpretation |
10.00 | Perfect match: Precipitation patterns are identical to period of interest |
9.50-9.99 | Very strong match |
9.00-9.49 | Significant match |
8.50-8.99 | Moderate match |
8.00 or less | Weak match: period of interest is unique in history |